Let's make some predictions. Elon with constant chnages trying to monetize the app and fight scraping bots? Or Mark with his experience running huge SM giants under Meta?
I believe Meta will definitely take over with Threads! As you mentioned Mark Zuckerberg has much more experience in this field. But also think this would have happened sooner or later this definitely the most profitable time to do it because of all their social media presence as comedic as it is now.
I don't think Threads can take away popularity from Twitter so fast. Right now there's a bit of crazy buzz because it's a new-new thing. With time it'll quite down a bit. I still remember Google+