The Base Rate Times is a news site that aggregates what prediction markets are saying about current events.
For example: “China-Taiwan conflict risk is 14%, up 2x after Pelosi visit”.
I made this project (MVP) because prediction markets are more accurate than pundits, yet the media has made limited use of their forecasts.
The Base Rate Times also summarizes news articles into 3-4 simple bullet points using AI. Neutral language, no sensationalism. I'm currently testing using AI to find historical data to contextualise stories, among other planned features.
I've started with coverage of Russia-Ukraine. Next will be an AI risk dashboard and an AI timeline (according to prediction markets). After that, Twitter polls will decide where to expand coverage - I'm a man of the people!